Weekend Box Office Predictions – July 18 - 20, 2025

This weekend brings a mix of genres family animation, a drama with awards potential, and a sci-fi thriller

Predicted Opening Weekend:

• The Smurfs: $12,712,570

• I Know What You Did Last Summer: $9,802,025

• Eddington: $6,889,793

The model goes against industry forecasts this weekend:

• Most projections place Last Summer around $15M, but the model sees it coming in well below that, at just $9.8M, based on lower-than-expected seat occupancy and a drop in showtime share.

• Meanwhile, The Smurfs is expected to open around $10M according to traditional tracking but the model sees stronger family demand and puts it above that, at $12.7M.

• Eddington, expected to struggle near $5M, shows signs of surprising strength in urban and evening screenings. The model forecasts a notable overperformance at $6.9M.

All numbers are based on Friday morning data, using a machine learning model that ingests live showtime and presale information from nearly the entire U.S. theatrical network.

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Full recap and accuracy breakdown coming Monday. Thanks for reading and sharing.